My bets for this year's Oscars

Best Actor

Who should win:

Sean Penn in “Milk”. Penn *was* Harvey Milk. You forgot you were watching the same man who played the brooding (macho) cop in Mystic River.

Who will win:

Sean Penn. But if the homophobes in Hollywood (let's not forget Brokeback Mountain) give the Oscar to porn star Mickey Rourke for his work in in “The Wrestler” I wouldn't be surprised.

Best Actress

Here are the nominees:

Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

So far I've only seen Doubt and The Reader. And whatever happens, Kate Winslet should not win. She was competent for sure, but apart from baring her breasts in 6 separate scenes, there was nothing memorable about her performance. Meryl Streep makes acting look easy. She is a god.

I plan to see Rachel Getting Married and Changeling before the awards, and if I do I will update this post.

Best Supporting Actor

Who should win:

Robert Downey, Jr. in "Tropic Thunder". Downey plays an Australian actor who for a role in a war movie dyes his skin black and plays a black soldier.

Who will win:

Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight". He's dead. You can't beat the dead guy.

Best Supporting Actress

Who should win:

Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” Penelope brought "psycho bitch" to a new level in Barcelona.

Who will win:

Penelope Cruz. But if the Academy gives it to Viola Davis for her work in "Doubt", that'd be great too. Davis held her own in a 12 minute sequence with Meryl Streep. Anyone who can go mano a mano with Meryl Streep for 12 minutes deserves an Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

Who should win:

"Bolt". This is Disney's comeback in full length animated features. It is smart, well written, well drawn, well directed. It is an excellent movie.

Who will win:

"Wall-E". This is a dumb movie. If you have not seen it, please stay away and re-arrange your sock drawer instead. If you have seen it and feel anything else but loathing towards this movie, you must like Chocnut. If Wall-E wins the award for best screenplay, I will shoot myself.

Best Director

Who should win:

Ron Howard for "Forst/Nixon". This movie is about a television interview. *Yawn* But Ron Howard makes it engaging. Almost exciting. Direction was masterful.

Who will win:

Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire". This movie is very good. And the direction is excellent. But it's a fairy tale set in Mumbai that uses flashbacks to tell a story. A story well told in a book called Q&A. With material that good, you don't really need to do much more. Now a story about a television interview, now *that's* boring stuff.

Best Motion Picture

What should win: "Milk". Go see it.

What will win: "Slumdog Millionaire". Because everyone loves a happy ending.